October 28: Consumer Confidence drops

Ian Morris from HSBC talks of how America have hit an all-time low in Consumer Confidents. With October seeing a massive decline to 38 (mkt) which is the lowest reading on Consumer Confidents since series began in 1967.

Jobs hard to get index surged and jobs plentiful index was hit, which leads us to believe the next payroll report will be extremely bad with HSBC – 230k but the risk may be – 300K.

The expectations component at 35.5 is also in a bad way, and the fear here is that it compares with consumption very well, so if we suggest – 4 percent consumption growth. We also have – 3 percent for the third quarter and -0.5 percent for the fourth Quarter which is partially aided by the oil price drop, but the risk now is for a weaker fourth quarter.

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